[EXCLUSIVE] 77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote, according to famous U of Colorado study
The University of Colorado (CU) prediction renowned for perfect accuracy will predict a popular-vote win for Mitt Romney later this month, Campus Reform has learned.
The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.
CU Political Science Professor Dr. Michael Berry, who spoke with Campus Reform at length on Tuesday, said there is at least 77 percent chance that Romney will win the popular vote.
“Our model indicates that Governor Romney has a 77 percent likelihood of winning the popular vote,” said Berry.
That number is significant, not only in its size, but because of the fact that only four presidents since the nation’s founding have won the presidency without capturing the popular vote, the last being George W. Bush in 2000.
Berry noted his model has never been wrong at predicting the outcome of a presidential election.
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” he said.
Berry also acknowledged that while his poll is accurate, however, that his model does not “calculate a specific confidence level for the Electoral College result.”
The study, conducted every four years, is non-political and employs historical data as well as current unemployment numbers and income levels.
In the crucial swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, a recent poll reveals that a majority of voters believe the health of the economy is the most important issue of this election.
Additionally, more than double of the respondents in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll trust Romney over Obama to fix the economic state of our country (63%-29%).
Along with the economy, unemployment adds an element which only increases the probability of the CU prediction.
“The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said.
Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder adds, “the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”
The Colorado model has had such accuracy over the years, these results have received no criticism from academic peers, according to Berry.
Berry emphasized that the overall accuracy of this model is based on the premise that American elections circle around the major issues. The day-to-day campaigning, gaffes, and political jabs are quite ineffective to the general population’s decision, come November 6th.
Campus Reform's Levi Fox had the chance to discuss this prediction with Dr. Michael Berry. Here is the exclusive interview.
Follow Levi Fox on twitter: @levithefox